WSF FX Diary, 29 July 2019

Wrap Up

The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart recovering from an earlier one-month low which it hit after betterthan-expected U.S. data and the ruling out of currency intervention by a top White House adviser.

The U.S. dollar index was also boosted by data showing the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter.

Canada posted a budget deficit of C$1.41 billion in the first two months of the 2019-2020 fiscal year, following a C$3.18 billion surplus posted a year earlier.

Canadian government bond prices were mixed across a flatter yield curve, with the two-year bond down 3 Canadian cents to yield 1.465% and the 10-year bond rising 3 Canadian cents to yield 1.464%.

Levels and recommendations

Global shares steadied today morning and the dollar hit a twomonth high against a basket of currencies as markets counted down to a likely cut in U.S. interest rates this week, with much riding on whether the Federal Reserve signals more cuts will follow.

Investors were also keeping an eye on U.S.-China trade talks. U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet in Shanghai this week for their first in-person talks since a G20 truce last month, but expectations for a breakthrough are low.

The British pound fell over half a percent to a 28-month low of $1.2301 amid reports the government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson was preparing the ground for a “no-deal” Brexit.

The Canadian dollar is trading flat as investors think that Fed is likely to refrain from announcing any aggressive monetary policy easing at its upcoming meeting on July 30-31. This coupled with a modest pullback in crude oil prices further undermined demand for the commodity currency and remained supportive. The USDCAD pair is likely to trade in the range of 1.3125-1.3275 levels.

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