WSF FX Diary, 30 July 2019

Wrap Up

The Canadian dollar edged slightly higher against its U.S. counterpart , with the currency on track to break its six-day losing streak as investors awaited a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, for what would be the first rate cut since the financial crisis.

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada diverged from some other major central banks, making clear it had no intention of easing monetary policy as it left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.75%.

Canadian government bond prices were lower across the yield curve, with the two-year bond down 1 Canadian cent to yield 1.478% and the 10-year bond falling 3 Canadian cents to yield 1.469%.

Levels and recommendations

A snarling warning from U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of trade talks with China rattled stock markets, as brewing no-deal Brexit worries also roughed up the pound and Irish bonds again.

The euro is trading below 1.1150 after German EU harmonized inflation missed with 1.1% YoY and US data saw Personal Income and Personal Spending expanding at a monthly 0.4% and 0.3%.

The British pound is trading lower below 1.2175 mark after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson call his predecessor’s Brexit plans dead and new foreign minister and former Brexit chief, Dominic Raab, label the European Union “stubborn”.

The Canadian dollar is trading weaker at 1.3185 levels due to broader strength seen in the US dollar index. Investors think that US Fed is unlikely to cut 50 bps tomorrow as they do not think that the economy is falling off a cliff in the near-term. The crude oil prices also inched up due to the prospect of an expected interest rate cut by the U.S. Fed which provided some support to loonie. The USDCAD pair is expected to trade in the range of 1.3150-1.3225 levels for the day. Economic

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